This article will focus on the Hoboken Condo Market.  There are many descriptive words we can use here.  Looking at the leading indicators we look at to determine the health of the Hoboken condo market, I can say with confidence that 2012 will be a positive year for Hobokenites.  I also believe that those that are on the fence about buying and make the decision not to, will look back in 2014-2015 and wonder in hindsight why they didn’t get in on a significant opportunity in 2012.

The most glaring improvement is the available inventory for sale and the depletion of inventory from 2011 to the end of 2012 as shown in the line graph below..  Without going into extreme detail, it is pretty self explanatory here:

In January 2011, there were 477 condos for sale in Hoboken.  In January 2012, there are only 187, a reduction of inventory by a staggering 60%.  The pace of sales volume, which calculates into the “rate of absorption” is along the same trends as a year ago.  Although 2011 sold about 14% less condos than in 2010, we shouldn’t forget the main reason was the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit which expired mid-year 2010.  In June 2010, there were 134 condo sales.  In June 2011, things were normal or average with a Hoboken sales volume of 72.

If inventory is coming down and the pace of sales is consistent which happens to be the case, you can expect more significant competition amongst buyers.  Our current listings are not lasting long on the market.  Almost all of our listings, we are calling a “highest and best offer” situation, which is music to seller’s ears.

Another indication that the market is improving is the Price Per Square Foot of condos sold.  The 1 and 2 bedroom market was almost flatline since Q1 of 2011.  That was a great sign of recovery and was a clear end to the downward trend of prices.  The end of the year of 2011 showed the beginning of an upward trend in square foot prices.

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We are seeing a lot of increased interest in 3 bedroom units in Hoboken as a result of more families moving into town and preferring a more urban lifestyle with proximity.  A tradeoff we are seeing is the family with multiple vehicles moving to Hoboken and downsizing to only 1 vehicle.  Only about 4% of the marketplace consists of 3+ bedroom units.  They are in very high demand at the moment.  The price per square foot of a 3 bedroom condo shot up from $395 / SF during Q4 of 2010 to $434 during Q4 of 2011, almost a 10% increase in value.

Sales activity was almost dead even in 2011 as it was in 2009, however about 8% less than 2010.  Again, we blame that on the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.

The average sales price of a condo in Hoboken in 2011 was $494,723, down from $498,135 in 2010.

Expect to see a slow slow month for January.  DABO’s or pending sales are down in November and December.  Unless January shows a more active number in January, we can expect February to be equally as slow.  We expect inventory levels to creep up just a bit before the spring buying season, however just as important, we anticipate a huge buyer frenzy due to improving confidence, historically low interest rates, and lower prices.  With the Fed agreeing to hold interest rates down, buyers will increasingly confident that if they find the right deal, affordability has re-entered the market.

Check out the charts below.  What are your thoughts on predicting how the first quarter will pan out.  For readers who register on our site, I will send you our thoughts on what we think.  Comment your predictions below in the designated area.

As a testament to all of our hard work, analysis, and research, our clients have successfully achieved all of their goals whether it was to buy or sell.  We are eliminating the disconnection between buyers and sellers which is one of the quickest ways to stabilize a market.

If you or anyone you know is looking to buy or sell in Hoboken, you have come to the right place.  Give me a call direct at 877-688-7582 or e-mail me at Scott@NewJerseyRealEstateGuys.com.

To browse all available condos for sale in Hoboken, CLICK HERE>

As the winter progresses, we don’t see a whole lot of change in the typical patterns.  December will remain moderate, but foot traffic will be comprised of more serious buyers.  If you are a seller, remember, that during the summer, people will go on Sunday drives just to take advantage of the snacks while touring homes in nice weather.  Those that do this in the colder months are historically much more serious types.  Some advice to sellers would be to treat every lead you have on your home seriously because you never know!

In Hoboken, the average price of a condo sold in November of $509,701 was higher than the annual average of $489,558.  The number of sales in November of 28, failed to meet the annual average of 51.  Keep in mind, volume fallout in winter is totally normal.  We look at rate of absorption which continues to improve steadily.

On December 1, there were 232 condos in Hoboken listed on the MLS.  In January, 2011, there were 386 condos on the market, a 40% reduction in inventory.  Some will say “Lucky Month”.  I think not…The inventory has fallen month over month quite a bit.  Here is the chart for inventory:

Regarding the macro market of Hoboken, investors are targeting condos with Capitalization Rates of 5-6% in Hoboken.  In 2011, the average rental rate in Hoboken improved 11.6%, one of the biggest metro jumps in the country.  There is a shortage of 3 bedroom condos and single family homes in Hoboken as only 5.5% of all inventory fits that criteria.  In a luxury building (asked not to be named), the sales manager said 46% of all sales this year went to investors.

Here is a look at November stats from this month and year over year change.

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It is our belief that we will not see a significant difference in home values until 2013, however on a micro/sub-market perspective, Hoboken is likely one that is going to defy the odds of that theory.  My theory was based on a national perspective.  The most recent jobs report, coupled by homebuyer confidence is going to be one of the reason why urban areas will recover first.

Investing in multi-family is always lucrative in the current economic conditions.  Shortage of rental stock means increasing rental rates.  Current MF buildings are being offered and sold at about 5-6% Cap Rates in Hoboken which means there is confidence that Cap Rates should improve nicely in the next couple of years.  Cap Rates at 5-6% today are better than what other investment vehicles can provide.  As long as you are aware of tangible risk, investors should have a field day with potential upside.

If you are looking at buying or selling real estate in Hoboken, call Scott Allan at 877-688-7582, or e-mail at Scott@NewJerseyRealEstateGuys.com.  Scott is the founder of New Jersey Real Estate Guys and located at Weichert in Hoboken, right near the PATH station.  Come see me and my team and find out why we are Hudson County’s most innovative agents.

With mortgage rates dropping below 4% recently, homes at all time low prices, and a good amount of quality homes listed for under $400,000 in Montclair, wouldn’t you think now is the time to consider buying?  Sure, everyone knows property taxes are high in Montclair, but if you are living in town, chances are you have a decent income.  Couldn’t you use the tax deduction at the end of the year?

September showed a similar pattern as previous years with sales activity, homes under contract, etc in Montclair.  Rental rates have remained steady and in some luxury spots, rates have indeed gone up.  I was negotiating a rental at the Siena today, hence my Starbucks trip, and at $3,500 per month for a 2/2, the seller would not budge to my offered $3,200.  I figured I’d get a call by the end of the week as I didn’t feel this would rent at $3,500.  To my surprise, the next morning I found out it had rented for full price.

Sellers are getting about 97% of their asking price these days and the rate of absorption in Montclair is holding at about 6.5 months.  Generally, a stable market has 6 months or less of inventory, indicated by the rate of absorption.  (Rate of Absorption = Current Inventory For Sale divided by Sales the Previous Month).  In past years, developers have looked for about a 6 month rate of absorption before starting new projects.  Now they are looking at 4-5 months.  The attraction to Montclair is seen by everyone from locals to city workers in the financial district looking for a great area to raise a family, yet still close to Port Authority / Penn Station.

Since the peak at the end of 2008, the sales price per square foot in Montclair has dropped about 17%.  An updated home in say Upper Montclair typically sold for about $300 – $310 per square foot during the peak.  Today, an updated home sells for about $240-$260 per square foot.  Using $300 at peak and $240 today, a 2,500 square foot home had a peak trading value at about $750,000 where today that home would trade at about $600,000.  Big difference.  Let’s look at September 2010 and 2011 statistics.

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As mentioned above, there is a similar pattern that happens every year.  Sales volume is up over the summer and quits down after August which only typically lasts until October.  A slow October in sales volume is indicative of actual activity in July and August when the homes are put in contract.  Sales volume increases from November – January and slows again in February – March.  There is no real complex answer as to why foot traffic and buying activity is slow in December and January.  It’s cold as heck out.  Who wants to shop for homes in the ice?  Perhaps the Indian Summer we are currently having will change things.  Summer activity is partially indicative of families wanting to settle before the school year starts.

My advice for Montclair buyers and sellers:  The housing market has reached its bottom.  Prices will remain stagnant for a good period of time.  Choosing to rent or buy can be a difficult decision, but there are many benefits of owning a home.  If you are planning to stay in your home for 5 years or more, now is a great time to buy.  If you are a seller, be sure you are priced to sell if you are truly looking to sell.  Sales volume is there, it’s just a matter of price.  If you are not in the ballpark, you may have to decide to sell your home for less, and if your mortgage principal exceeds market value, talk with us about the Short Sale Process where we have helped numerous NJ residents.

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As seen in the charts above, you will see the comparison of patterns for sales volume in Montclair.  In the second graph, it is easy to notice that the average sales price of a home in Montclair has increased year over year since 2009.

Average Sales Price 2009 – $595,068

Average Sales Price 2010 – $637,980

Average Sales Price 2011 – $677,679

If you are looking for real estate assistance in Montclair, please consider Scott Allan with New Jersey Real Estate Guys of Weichert Realtors.  As a local native of Montclair, I can help guide you in the right direction to meet your goals.  Using our cutting edge technology, analysis, and market presence, we can assure you satisfaction.

E-mail Scott here or call at 877-688-7582 to schedule a complimentary / personalized consultation.

Thank you.

During the month of September, the price per square foot of condos sold exceeded the annual average YTD.

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Below is a graph for how the price per square foot has performed year over year.

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Indicative of the graph above, the average price per square foot seems to be doing relatively well this year after arguably bottoming out sometime around February 2011.  Overall, we are seeing a higher demand in 2 Bedroom condos as opposed to anything else.  Despite the number of foreclosure filings in New Jersey, Hoboken only has about 8 short sale listings which is a great ratio to the 306 active condos for sale.  That is a ratio of 34:1 in favor of conventional listings (non short sales).

Sellers have been achieving about 98% of their asking price which indicates a good connection between buyers and sellers.  We consider anything less than 92% a buyer/seller disconnect which typically indicates a challenging market.

One of the most important things you can do for your home if you are a seller is STAGING.  Don’t leave clutter and a mess.  Make room and make it comfy for prospects to walk through.

Here are some September statistics for the Hoboken real estate market ( condos ).  Notice some distinct Year Over Year differences which is a nice thing to see!

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If you are playing devil’s advocate to the real estate market, be sure to differentiate markets and admit that all markets are LOCAL in nature.  Although Flipping may not be a viable option for buyers at this time, buying for the long term is recommended.  Recent mortgage rates have dipped below 4% and those looking to stay in their home longer than 3 years should strongly consider buying at today’s prices at today’s rates.

If you are a buyer or seller in Hoboken, visit me at our office on 1 Newark Street right next to the PATH station.  Be sure to ask for me, Scott Allan or my partner Marie Gomer right in the Weichert real estate office.  We would value an opportunity to assist in meeting your goals. You can e-mail us here, or call us direct at 877-688-7582.  Thanks and looking forward to meeting you.

Back to real estate…. Check this out..

The chart above shows active inventory at the beginning of each month dating back to January 2010.  This is a significant dropoff in Hoboken condo inventory on the market for sale.  In conjunction with low levels of Hoboken condo inventory, there were 54 sales in August.  As a result of the sales and the available inventory for sale of 292 condos for sale, the current rate of absorption in Hoboken is less than 5.5 months.  If we can keep a similar pace of sales and absorption throughout the next 5 months, I believe that the second quarter of 2012 will result in a booming Hoboken real estate market.

Below are the results of July real estate statistics for Hoboken for July 2010/2011.

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Every category with the exception of DABO’s is significantly improved in 2011, a great sign for a recovering housing market.  The Absorption Rate alone improved by over 3 full months, a HUGE positive swing.

We are seeing a huge amount of walk-ins at our office in town.  The increase in traffic is due to many factors.  Low interest rates, lower home prices, improved confidence, and what stuck out most to me this week was the amount of potential buyers expressing their frustration over missed deals.  Missed deals were the result of low offers, thinking too long which resulted in condo going into contract, and price increase.

As we approach fall, the market tends to fall off a bit until Spring.  A slight decrease in market activity is expected, however as the election looms in 2012 and the Fed continuing to think about ways to improve the economy, we expect Spring 2012 to be a boom.  This will sway fence-sitting buyers to act sooner, possibly decreasing the fallout from the winter buyer hibernation.

Below are some additional charts that will help you understand how far the condo market in Hoboken has improved year over year.

If you are looking for a professional real estate agent in Hoboken, we look forward to an opportunity to meet with you.  We offer free personalized consultations and market evaluations for buyers and sellers.  We also offer FREE home value estimates.  Feel free to call us direct at 877-688-7582 or e-mail us here.

Ok, so sales trends are similar.  What is noticeably different is the average price of a home sold since 2009.  So far in 2011 Year To Date, the average price of a home sold has exceeded 2009 by a marginal 12.5%.  The average price of a home sold annually since 2009 is $595,068 (2009), $645,529 (2010), and $680,385 (2011).

Here are the July Statistics and annual changes:

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Indicative from the chart, we are currently experiencing a stronger housing market as opposed to one year ago.  The rate of absorption is a significant change.  The absorption rate is a calculation used to determine the rate of sales.  It indicates how long the current market of available homes for sale will be absorbed based on the previous month of sales volume.  So being that there are currently 183 homes for sale in Montclair and 45 sold in July (the most recent previous month), the rate of absorption is approximately 4 months.  Builders typically look at a 4-5 month absorption rate before starting new construction projects.  New construction is favorable for Montclair as indicated by the rate of absorption.

The 3 biggest sales for Montclair during July were as follows:

193 Upper Mountain Ave – This home was listed for $1,195,000 and sold on July 15 for $1,100,000 after spending 105 days on the market.  This colonial giant consisted of 7 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms and 2 half bathrooms.

74 S. Mountain Ave – This home was originally listed for $1,499,900 and sold on July 10 for $1,225,000 after spending only 54 days on the market.  This Victorian Home consisted of 8 bedrooms and 8.5 bathrooms sprawled over 1.4 acres.
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130 Bellevue Ave – This home was listed at $1,599,000 and sold on July 8 for $1,500,000 after only 69 days on the market.  Consisted of 6 bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms.

Looks like the big homes are selling quick if priced right!  Hint Hint!!  $345 per square foot for McMansions seems to be today’s going rate.  During the peak you were pushing north of $400 per square foot.

If you are looking to buy or sell your home in Montclair, look to Montclair native Scott Allan of New Jersey Real Estate Guys.  Please call for a complimentary personalized consultation and we will assist in evaluating your position as a seller and as a buyer, offer an elite sales force that will achieve your best price on your new home.

Call Scott direct at 877-688-7582 or e-mail here

A few things we are noticing:

• Price Per Square Foot (PPSF) of condos sold in Hoboken this year have stabilized.  PPSF is down from Q4 2010 but seeing stability is good.  Average PPSF for Studio and 1 Bedrooms for the year is $467 and Average PPSF for 2 Bedroom units is $442.
• Inventory is WAYYYY down
• Monthly Sales Volume and DABO’s are very consistent in patterns as 2009 and 2010.  If this holds true, expect monthly sales to remain stable and consistent at the current rate for the remainder of the year.
• With no current government incentives in place we are only 6 monthly sales per month on average less than 2010 when we had the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.  Buyers are taking advantage of bargains and mortgage rates.

Below are the July Statistics and performance charts/graphs for Hoboken 2011.  But before that, our written conclusion   If you are looking to buy / sell a condo in Hoboken, you have come to the right place.  As you can see, New Jersey Real Estate Guys has the most analytic and professional experience in Hoboken to date.  With our offices conveniently located in the Weichert Realtors building at 1 Newark St (next to PATH), we can meet you at your convenience.  E-mail us here or call me (Scott Allan) direct at 877-688-7582

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